President Biden\u2019s withdrawal and Vice President Harris\u2019s selection as the presumptive Democratic nominee has reset the 50-state race for the White House.<\/p>\n
Former president Donald Trump had gained in national and state-level polls after a June debate in which Biden appeared confused and was at times unable to answer questions.<\/p>\n
But in the two weeks since Biden dropped out and Harris became the presumptive Democratic nominee, Democrats\u2019 poll numbers \u2014 and their chances of holding the White House \u2014 have rebounded. The path to victory for Harris once again runs through seven key swing states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe Democratic base is coming home,\u201d said Amy Walter, publisher and editor in chief of the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter. \u201cIn states that we know that are evenly divided and have been very, very close for these last few elections, they kind of snap back to being very, very competitive and will be the focus of the 2024 campaign.\u201d<\/p>\n
Although Trump\u2019s paths to victory were expanding in late June and early July, the race \u201cis now contracting back to the original six or seven battleground states,\u201d Walter added.<\/p>\n
Trump and Harris are now in a virtual tie, with Trump at 46 percent support and Harris at 45.4 percent support, according to a Washington Post average of national polls. In July, Trump had 46.8 percent support while Biden had 45.2 percent support, according to The Post\u2019s polling average.<\/p>\n
As of Saturday, Trump still led in five of the seven battlegrounds, according to The Post\u2019s polling average.<\/p>\n
Trump leads Harris by five points in Georgia and Arizona, four points in North Carolina and Nevada and two points in Michigan, The Post\u2019s averages estimate. Trump and Harris are tied in Pennsylvania, while Harris has a slight edge in Wisconsin. Harris is performing about one percentage point better in those states than Biden was before he dropped out.<\/p>\n
Harris is doing better with Black voters, which could help bring Georgia back into play for Democrats, polling suggests. But she may not be able to replicate Biden\u2019s appeal with White, non-college voters, which could impact her chances in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.<\/p>\n
Democrats are \u201cseeing tremendous enthusiasm for Vice President Harris and her vision in the states, whether it\u2019s brand new supporters showing up at field offices in Nevada and Pennsylvania to knock doors or the 1,000 Georgia voters who signed up to volunteer after her rally in Atlanta,\u201d Josh Marcus-Blank, states communications director for Harris, said in an emailed statement.<\/p>\n
Strategists from both parties see Pennsylvania as a near must-win state for both Trump and Harris. Pennsylvania is also the state where Republicans and Democrats are investing the most in TV ad spending. Democrats are spending more than $56 million on television ads in the state between July 21 and the November election, according to the firm AdImpact. Republicans are spending $61 million.<\/p>\n
After Pennsylvania, Democrats have spent the most on presidential television ads in Michigan, followed by Georgia, Wisconsin, Arizona, North Carolina and Nevada. For Republicans, television ad spending after Pennsylvania was highest in Georgia, followed by Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, North Carolina and Nevada.<\/p>\n
\u201cIf I were in their shoes, I wouldn\u2019t be banking on anything outside of the blue wall saving me,\u201d said Scott Jennings, a Republican strategist, of the Harris campaign. \u201cIf you\u2019re banking on Arizona, and Georgia and North Carolina saving you from losing the blue wall, that\u2019s not a bet I\u2019d want to make \u2026 The pivotal state remains Pennsylvania. If you win it, you\u2019ve got a chance.\u201d<\/p>\n
Many Republicans say Harris is enjoying a honeymoon period, with the rollout of her candidacy, her upcoming vice-presidential announcement and the Democratic National Convention weeks away. New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu predicted that in his state, Harris\u2019s poll numbers will hit a \u201chigh-water mark around mid-to-late August\u201d and said that \u201cif she doesn\u2019t have enough of a buffer they\u2019re going to come back down.\u201d<\/p>\n
Trump \u201chas been gaining ground and leading in battleground and blue states,\u201d Karoline Leavitt, a Trump campaign spokesperson, said in a statement. \u201cAs more voters understand how weak, failed and dangerously liberal Kamala Harris is, President Trump\u2019s chances in these battleground states and traditionally Democrat strongholds will only get better,\u201d she added.<\/p>\n
Still, Democrats see Harris as more competitive than Biden in the Sun Belt states of Nevada, Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina.<\/p>\n
\u201cShe has appeal to some constituencies within the party that were lagging with Biden,\u201d including younger voters and Black and Hispanic voters, said David Axelrod, a former senior adviser to President Obama. \u201cThat puts into play some of those Sun Belt states that have seemed out of reach. They\u2019re still a stretch but they\u2019re not nearly the stretch they were.\u201d<\/p>\n
Axelrod added that while there\u2019s more energy and optimism for Democrats, \u201ceverybody should be sober that given the map, it is still a difficult race.\u201d<\/p>\n
At Trump\u2019s rally in Atlanta on Saturday, several Trump voters said they saw Harris as a more formidable opponent than Biden because of her age. But they expected Trump to prevail in Georgia.<\/p>\n
Kirk Barnett said Harris is \u201cprobably\u201d a tougher opponent. \u201cShe is coherent,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
The candidates\u2019 travel will offer clues for how they see the map going forward. Trump held a rally in Georgia this weekend, days after Harris also visited the state. Harris, meanwhile, plans to hit all seven battleground states this week, when she introduces her running mate. Harris\u2019s running mate choice will also shed further light on her campaign strategy. Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro is among the potential running mates she\u2019s vetting, along with Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly.<\/p>\n
As November approaches, analysts caution that the shape of the race remains uncertain.<\/p>\n
In the course of a month, Biden had a debate that changed the direction of the presidential race, Trump was nearly assassinated and Harris replaced Biden at the top of the ticket, Walter noted.<\/p>\n
\u201cAll those things happened and it\u2019s not like the polls flipped,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n
Emily Guskin and Scott Clement contributed to this report.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
President Biden\u2019s withdrawal and Vice President Harris\u2019s selection as the presumptive Democratic nominee has reset the 50-state race for the White House. Former president Donald Trump had gained in national and state-level polls after a June debate in which Biden appeared confused and was at times unable to answer questions. But in the two weeks […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":7266,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-7265","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-politics"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7265","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=7265"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7265\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/7266"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=7265"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=7265"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=7265"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}