{"id":5635,"date":"2024-06-29T00:03:01","date_gmt":"2024-06-29T00:03:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/2024\/06\/29\/stock-markets-choppy-action-continues-focus-is-on-jobs-report-powell-speech\/"},"modified":"2024-06-29T00:03:01","modified_gmt":"2024-06-29T00:03:01","slug":"stock-markets-choppy-action-continues-focus-is-on-jobs-report-powell-speech","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/2024\/06\/29\/stock-markets-choppy-action-continues-focus-is-on-jobs-report-powell-speech\/","title":{"rendered":"Stock Market\u2019s Choppy Action Continues: Focus is on Jobs Report, Powell Speech"},"content":{"rendered":"
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The stock market\u2019s theme this week seems to be indecision. This could continue until Chairman Powell speaks and the June payrolls number comes out next week. You\u2019d think the May Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report showing slowing inflation would boost equities, but while it technically did, it was brief.<\/p>\n

Choppy Equities<\/h2>\n

If you look at a daily chart of the S&P 500 ($SPX), your first thought may be that the market didn\u2019t do much to end the trading week. But if you pull up an intraday chart, you\u2019ll see a lot of price movement. Initially, stocks rose, as did bond prices. But the rally was short; bonds quickly sold off, and equities stayed higher for over an hour before retreating. The S&P 500 ($SPX) touched a new record high, but the momentum quickly reversed. Equities remained flat for most of the trading day and sold off at the close.<\/p>\n

This may be disappointing for bulls as the trading week, month, quarter, and first half of the year ends. But, overall, the year\u2019s first half has been a great ride for equities. Maybe investors are getting nervous about the second half of the year, which may be why the stock market is stalling.<\/p>\n

The S&P 500 hasn\u2019t been doing much since last Thursday. It pulled back mainly due to NVIDIA\u2019s selloff, and then it slowly tried to make its way back up (see chart below<\/a>). But selling pressure came in quickly when it moved too much higher and took the index back down.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

CHART 1. CHOPPY STOCK MARKET. The S&P 500 index has been moving sideways for over a week. Will next week present a different picture?<\/span>Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

The S&P 500 has been moving within a relatively narrow range, and when it tried to break out of this range, it quickly returned. It feels as if bearish pressure quickly jumps in when things get a little too bullish.<\/p>\n

Friday\u2019s price action suggests that the market may have hit an exhaustion level, given that the bullish pressure couldn\u2019t hold. The candlestick bar shows that bearish sentiment dominated the day\u2019s trading. The Nasdaq Composite ($COMPQ) shows similar price action.<\/p>\n

If you pull up the weekly chart of the S&P 500 (see below<\/a>), it\u2019s clear the week reflected indecision.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

CHART 2. WEEKLY CHART OF S&P 500 INDEX. The week ends on a note of indecision.<\/span>Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

Next week is a short trading week, but there are some key data points on deck. There\u2019s the June PMI and the June jobs report. More importantly, we\u2019ll hear from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Will he say something that will make the stock market more decisive? We\u2019ll have to wait and see, but, hopefully, something more exciting happens next week.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s All About Interest Rates<\/h2>\n

Investors continue to focus on interest rate cuts. When will that first rate cut happen? There\u2019s speculation it could be as early as September, but that\u2019s iffy given that we\u2019re in an election year. It could be after the election, taking it to the November meeting.<\/p>\n

The Fed has suggested one rate cut this year, which is what the stock market has priced in. Yet, there\u2019s still uncertainty among investors. The 10-year Treasury yield ($TNX) closed higher despite a PCE that indicated inflation is slowly coming down. However, it isn\u2019t at levels to be concerned about.<\/p>\n

The daily chart of $TNX below<\/a> shows that the 10-year yield is hitting a resistance level of its February and March highs. It\u2019s also close to its 100-day simple moving average<\/a> (SMA). It\u2019ll take a lot for it to break above this level.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/p>\n

CHART 3. DAILY CHART OF 10-YEAR TREASURY YIELDS. While the 10-year yield rose, it\u2019s at a resistance level.<\/span>Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

The Bottom Line<\/h2>\n

Despite this week\u2019s sideways move, the uptrend in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite is still in play. Overall market volatility is still low, as reflected by the CBOE Volatility Index ($VIX). There\u2019s a chance we could get some decisiveness creep into the market next week, but don\u2019t be surprised if the choppiness continues. Next week could be slow. Happy Fourth of July!<\/p>\n

End-of-Week Wrap-Up<\/h2>\n<\/p>\n

S&P 500<\/strong> closed down 0.08% for the week, at 5460.48; Dow Jones Industrial Average<\/strong> down 0.08% for the week at 39,118.86; Nasdaq Composite<\/strong> closed up 0.24% for the week, down 0.23% at 17,732.60.
\n$VIX down 5.76% for the week closing at 12.44
\nBest performing sector for the week: Energy
\nWorst performing sector for the week: Utilities
\nTop 5 Large Cap SCTR stocks<\/a>: NVIDIA (NVDA); Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI); Vistra Energy (VST); Applovin Corp (APP); MicroStrategy Inc. (MSTR)<\/span><\/p>\n

On the Radar Next Week<\/strong><\/p>\n

June ISM Manufacturing PMI
\nMay JOLTs Report
\nJune US Jobs Report
\nFed Chair Powell Speech
\nJune FOMC Meeting Minutes<\/p>\n

Disclaimer:<\/em><\/strong> This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The stock market\u2019s theme this week seems to be indecision. This could continue until Chairman Powell speaks and the June payrolls number comes out next week. You\u2019d think the May Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report showing slowing inflation would boost equities, but while it technically did, it was brief. Choppy Equities If you look at […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":5636,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5635","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-stock"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5635","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5635"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5635\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/5636"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5635"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5635"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5635"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}