Pro-Israel groups make up an increasingly large presence in Democratic primaries for Congress. Even so, the effort to unseat Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-N.Y.) in Tuesday\u2019s primary is extraordinary.<\/p>\n
And the result could reverberate greatly in the evolving internal Democratic debate over the war in Gaza.<\/p>\n
That\u2019s because, while the dollar amounts are becoming larger and the results have been mostly positive for the pro-Israel groups, their record is still mixed in the highest-profile races. Unseating Bowman would be the strongest sign yet that criticizing Israel is a recipe for heartburn and may at least be a contributing factor in an incumbent\u2019s loss. It would also be a particularly significant victory given that these groups failed to stop Bowman in 2020 \u2014 and given that the Democratic base has trended sharply away from Israel in recent months.<\/p>\n
The United Democracy Project super PAC, which is aligned with the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) and another prominent group, Democratic Majority for Israel, have spent more than $60 million on Democratic congressional primaries since the 2020 election.<\/p>\n
More than a quarter of that has now been spent to unseat Bowman, who faces Westchester County Executive George Latimer (D). The roughly $16 million these groups have spent on the race is more than double what they\u2019ve spent on any other race. It\u2019s also a sum rarely seen in a congressional primary.<\/p>\n
The groups have spent extensively in plenty of races in recent years. More often than not, the investment has paid off. But this hasn\u2019t necessarily meant the greater the sum spent, the greater the chance of victory.<\/p>\n
Below is a review of how they\u2019ve fared, based on data from Open Secrets:<\/p>\n
These groups have spent at least $400,000 in each of 16 primaries since 2020. Their candidates have won 11 of them.<\/span> In addition to targeting Bowman again, these groups have spent about $2 million so far this cycle against another member aligned with the Squad, Rep. Cori Bush (D-Mo.), who faces an Aug. 6 primary \u2014 the other big test for these groups.<\/p>\n While a Bowman loss would be the biggest signal yet of these groups\u2019 might, it\u2019s not so clear how much it would say about the issues they hold near and dear.<\/p>\n In Bowman\u2019s race, like many others above, the advertising hasn\u2019t actually focused on Israel-related issues. And Bowman has his own personal problems, apart from his comments criticizing Israel over the war in Gaza. They include his pleading guilty to a misdemeanor after he pulled a fire alarm during a heated congressional debate over a potential government shutdown. Bowman was later censured by the House.<\/p>\n But we\u2019ve seen repeatedly in recent years how even the fear of an arduous primary can greatly affect members\u2019 conduct. Very few members wind up losing primaries \u2014 none have lost so far this year, though Rep. Bob Good (R-Va.) appears likely to lose his uncalled race from last week \u2014 but members in safe districts like Bowman\u2019s tend to toe their party\u2019s line knowing their only real hurdle to reelection is the primary.<\/p>\n Should Bowman fall, you can bet his colleagues will notice.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n Pro-Israel groups make up an increasingly large presence in Democratic primaries for Congress. Even so, the effort to unseat Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-N.Y.) in Tuesday\u2019s primary is extraordinary. And the result could reverberate greatly in the evolving internal Democratic debate over the war in Gaza. That\u2019s because, while the dollar amounts are becoming larger and […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":5533,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5532","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-politics"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5532","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5532"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5532\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/5533"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5532"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5532"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5532"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
\nTheir second-largest investment after Bowman\u2019s 2024 race came in a 2022 Maryland primary, in which they helped thwart former congresswoman Donna F. Edwards\u2019s (D-Md.) attempt to return to Congress, spending more than $6 million. Edwards, like other candidates opposed by these groups, had angered them with some of her stances on Israel.<\/span>
\nThey\u2019ve succeeded in both of the races in which they\u2019ve targeted incumbents like Bowman \u2014 Rep. Marie Newman (D-Ill.) and Rep. Andy Levin (D-Mich.) in 2022.<\/span>
\nBut Newman\u2019s loss was lopsided despite a relatively small investment, suggesting she was on track to lose regardless. And the groups have failed in some of their most high-profile races. That includes Bowman\u2019s defeat of incumbent Rep. Eliot L. Engel (D-N.Y.) in 2020, in which these groups spent $2 million to try to save the incumbent. It also includes a trio of races in which they\u2019ve spent more than $4 million each: a California primary earlier this year, and wins by now-Reps. Summer Lee (D-Pa.) and Shri Thanedar (D-Mich.) in 2022.<\/span>
\nThey\u2019ve also run into particular resistance when targeting lawmakers aligned with \u201cThe Squad,\u201d a group of diverse, progressive Democratic lawmakers. That was the case with Bowman\u2019s 2020 primary, as well as Lee\u2019s in 2022.<\/span><\/p>\n