One big question remains in convicted former president Donald Trump\u2019s Manhattan criminal trial: What is the sentence, and could he go to prison? We\u2019ll find out July 11.<\/p>\n
Polls conducted since Thursday\u2019s verdict reinforce how politically pivotal the answer could be in the 2024 election. But Americans have nuanced views on the subject that suggest a prison sentence could cut both ways.<\/p>\n
On the one hand, Americans lean against sending Trump to prison for these crimes \u2014 even many who sign off on the guilty verdict.<\/p>\n
On the other, the polls show that a prison sentence could push more voters away from him than a mere conviction.<\/p>\n
So while a prison sentence could help convince Americans of the severity of Trump\u2019s crimes, it could also cause them to decide it\u2019s overkill.<\/p>\n
Two surveys since the verdict show that slightly more Americans say Trump shouldn\u2019t go to prison than say he should:<\/p>\n
A Reuters-Ipsos poll shows Americans oppose a prison sentence 51 percent to 46 percent.<\/span> A significant number of Americans who approve of the Manhattan trial feel this way. For instance, in the CBS poll, Americans said that the trial was fair, 56 to 44 percent, and that the verdict was correct, 57-43. So Americans believe in the trial and outcome by double digits, but they still lean against prison time.<\/p>\n Trump was convicted on 34 counts of falsifying business records as part of an illegal effort to influence the 2016 election. The crimes are felonies punishable by 16 months to four years in prison. Experts seem to largely agree that incarceration is unlikely, given that these are the lowest-level felonies in New York and Trump has not previously been convicted of a crime. But Trump\u2019s post-conviction conduct, including his distinct lack of remorse and potential violations of his still-operable gag order, could work against him.<\/p>\n The lack of support for prison time is particularly notable, since Americans have previously expressed an openness to it.<\/p>\n The same Reuters-Ipsos poll in January asked Americans whether Trump should be imprisoned if convicted in one of his cases. Fully 71 percent of Americans agreed with that at least \u201csomewhat,\u201d and 53 percent agreed with it \u201cstrongly.\u201d Yet today, just 46 percent say prison is warranted in this particular case.<\/p>\n That may be a reflection of the perceived severity of Trump\u2019s crimes. The January question didn\u2019t ask about a specific case, and Americans have long viewed the charges in Manhattan as less serious than Trump\u2019s three other indictments.<\/p>\n The big question from that case is how Americans would react to a prison sentence, should it come.<\/p>\n The polls have shown that a prison sentence would theoretically alienate more voters.<\/p>\n In April, the Reuters-Ipsos poll showed President Biden gaining two points on Trump if Trump is convicted, but gaining six points if Trump is \u201ccurrently serving time in prison.\u201d While just 9 percent of Trump supporters said they would abandon him if convicted, twice as many \u2014 20 percent \u2014 said they would do so if Trump is in prison.<\/p>\n The new Reuters poll backs this up. It shows that 54 percent of registered voters say they wouldn\u2019t vote for a convicted Trump, but 58 percent said they wouldn\u2019t vote for an imprisoned Trump. The percentage of Republicans who say they wouldn\u2019t back Trump rises from 14 percent to 23 percent.<\/p>\n But that\u2019s seemingly if they agree that the outcome is warranted. Americans could decide that a prison sentence in this particular case is not.<\/p>\n They have not bought into Trump\u2019s claims that he was targeted politically or that the trial was unfair \u2014 only about 4 in 10 or fewer Americans have said that \u2014 but other polls have shown more suspicion that politics might have played a role in this prosecution. That suggests a prison sentence could test Americans\u2019 stomach for how far these proceedings have gone.<\/p>\n The data so far don\u2019t necessarily suggest that they would turn against those proceedings. The CBS poll, for instance, shows nearly 1 in 5 Americans reserving judgment, and those opposing prison make up the slightest of majorities in the Reuters poll. Few Americans have paid very close attention to the trial \u2014 35 percent in the CBS poll, and just 19 percent in the Reuters poll \u2014 so it seems possible that people could be convinced that prison is warranted.<\/p>\n But these polls reinforce what a dicey day July 11 could be \u2014 and how New York Supreme Court Justice Juan Merchan\u2019s sentencing decision could reverberate in the four months that follow until Election Day.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n One big question remains in convicted former president Donald Trump\u2019s Manhattan criminal trial: What is the sentence, and could he go to prison? We\u2019ll find out July 11. Polls conducted since Thursday\u2019s verdict reinforce how politically pivotal the answer could be in the 2024 election. But Americans have nuanced views on the subject that suggest […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":5193,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5192","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-politics"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5192","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5192"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5192\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/5193"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5192"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5192"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5192"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
\nA CBS News-YouGov poll shows Americans oppose it 45 to 38 percent.<\/span><\/p>\n