{"id":3667,"date":"2024-04-29T00:03:48","date_gmt":"2024-04-29T00:03:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/2024\/04\/29\/heres-what-you-need-to-know-about-last-weeks-rebound\/"},"modified":"2024-04-29T00:03:48","modified_gmt":"2024-04-29T00:03:48","slug":"heres-what-you-need-to-know-about-last-weeks-rebound","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/2024\/04\/29\/heres-what-you-need-to-know-about-last-weeks-rebound\/","title":{"rendered":"Here\u2019s What You Need To Know About Last Week\u2019s Rebound"},"content":{"rendered":"
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The Volatility Index ($VIX) is one of my key sentiment indicators and it has a history of accurately predicting corrections and bear markets. We\u2019ve had neither without the VIX first clearing an important hurdle in the 17-20 range. Bear markets require a huge dose of fear and panic and the VIX acts as our stock market meteorologist \u2013 one that predicts major market storms as they\u2019re approaching. Throughout this entire secular bull market, the S&P 500\u2019s poor periods of performance have been marked by VIX readings above 20. Rather than repeat these results in this article, you can check out a Trading Places article that I wrote in November 2023, \u201cWhat Are The Chances Of A Market Crash? This Indicator Says ZERO!\u201d<\/a><\/p>\n

On recent Trading Places Live YouTube shows and in my regular emails to our EB.com members, I\u2019ve consistently discussed the significant increase in risk that accompanies a VIX close above 20. I do not take it lightly and neither should you. But check out what happened over the past few weeks as the VIX spiked and neared 20:<\/p>\n

We had a straight-up move off the October 2023 low and the above chart simply reeks of slowing bullish momentum throughout the second half of Q1. I expected March weakness, but it was delayed into April. That final move lower in October was characterized by the big VIX increase \u2013 ultimately with closes on the VIX above 20. Once that VIX returned below 17, the selling and correction was over and the bull market resumed. Hence, the reason for my November article linked above.<\/p>\n

When I evaluate a bounce like the one we had last week, I like to see if there\u2019s a resumption of the \u201crisk on\u201d market environment. Here are a few ratios that I like to follow and how they responded during the bounce:<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

These 3 ratios all bounced higher with the S&P 500, but all remain in downtrends that began before the S&P 500 selling did. That tells me that \u201crisk off\u201d still remains in play to some degree and we\u2019ll need further confirmation that a short-term bottom is in play. IF we do turn lower again, watch the VIX. If we see fresh new lows on the S&P 500 and the fear dissipates (ie, VIX remains below 20), I\u2019d view that as a positive signal.<\/p>\n

Over the past two weeks, I\u2019ve shared my best upcoming earnings reports in the finance and industrials sectors. They both (AXP and GE) saw very strong reactions to their quarterly results. Tomorrow morning, I\u2019ll share my top technology pick with our FREE EB Digest newsletter subscribers. If you haven\u2019t already subscribed and you\u2019d like to see the technology company that I believe will report blowout quarterly results ahead, simply CLICK HERE<\/a> and enter your name and email address. There\u2019s no credit card required and you may unsubscribe at any time.<\/p>\n

Have a great week ahead and happy trading!<\/p>\n

Tom<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Volatility Index ($VIX) is one of my key sentiment indicators and it has a history of accurately predicting corrections and bear markets. We\u2019ve had neither without the VIX first clearing an important hurdle in the 17-20 range. Bear markets require a huge dose of fear and panic and the VIX acts as our stock […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":3668,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3667","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-stock"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3667","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3667"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3667\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3668"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3667"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3667"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3667"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}