In none of Donald Trump\u2019s criminal trials do the politics rank as close in importance to the legal issues as they do in Manhattan. The charges in the hush-money-election-interference case are objectively less serious than those in the former president\u2019s other cases, and Americans harbor significantly more uncertainty about them.<\/p>\n
That creates a situation in which the perception of the trial looms especially large.<\/p>\n
And we\u2019ve now got one of our first good looks at how the trial might be playing politically. A CNN poll suggests that Americans remain skeptical of the process and the trial\u2019s importance. But it also suggests that Trump\u2019s claims of victimization are still far from prevailing \u2014 and that perhaps his own conduct is to blame.<\/p>\n
The top-line findings from the poll:<\/p>\n
Just 28 percent say a conviction would disqualify Trump from the presidency \u2014 double-digits less than those who say that of Trump\u2019s three other indictments. And just 33 percent say he did something illegal. (Another 33 percent say his conduct was unethical but not illegal.)<\/span>Americans say 56 percent to 44 percent that they\u2019re not confident the jury will reach a fair verdict.<\/span>But just 34 percent buy into Trump\u2019s claims that he\u2019s being treated more harshly than most other criminal defendants. Nearly half say he\u2019s either being treated about the same (13 percent) or more leniently (34 percent).<\/span>Trump\u2019s conduct doesn\u2019t appear to be doing him many favors. Americans say by a 17-point margin \u2014 42 percent to 25 percent \u2014 that it\u2019s been mostly inappropriate rather than mostly appropriate. (The rest are undecided.)<\/span><\/p>\n It\u2019s worth taking these findings piece by piece.<\/p>\n The first isn\u2019t terribly surprising, as it lines up with previous polling. Americans are skeptical that Trump broke the law here in a way they simply aren\u2019t with his major controversies. They also view this case as involving significantly lower stakes for their November votes.<\/p>\n The most relevant and interesting findings are the other three noted above.<\/p>\n As to the majority not being confident the verdict will be fair, it\u2019s worth asking why that is. Yes, even many Democrats are skeptical of the case; just 64 percent of them say they think Trump is guilty. And perhaps this reflects some concern that Manhattan\u2019s very blue-leaning population will be biased against a former president from the red side.<\/p>\n But it would also seem possible that it\u2019s partly about people worrying about Trump getting away with it. Trump has proved slippery when it comes to efforts to hold him accountable in the past, after all, and all it takes is one juror to hold out. (Many have noted that a juror has described getting their news from Trump\u2019s Truth Social social media platform.)<\/p>\n Indeed, the poll shows nearly half of Democrats aren\u2019t confident in the jury\u2019s verdict. Given that nearly two-thirds of them believe he\u2019s guilty and that another recent poll showed just 4 in 10 Democrats think Trump will be convicted, it would seem likely many of them are worried about a lack of accountability.<\/p>\n This could also simply reflect Americans\u2019 increasingly generalized lack of faith in our legal institutions. An AP-NORC poll last week, for instance, showed low levels of faith not just in the jurors, but also in the judges hearing the cases against Trump and in the U.S. Supreme Court.<\/p>\n Which brings us to the more-Trump-focused findings. Some on the right have pointed to the mere 13 percent who say Trump is being treated like other defendants as if it bolsters Trump\u2019s claims of persecution; Breitbart gamely claimed that the poll \u201cappears to confirm Trump\u2019s argument that efforts to bankrupt and throw him in jail are politically motivated[.]\u201d<\/p>\n But it shows no such thing; half of those who think he\u2019s not being treated like other defendants say he\u2019s actually being treated more leniently (another possible nod to that generalized lack of faith in legal institutions). Fewer than 3 in 10 independents and moderates buy that Trump has been treated more harshly.<\/p>\n This poll is merely the latest to suggest Trump\u2019s claims to persecution haven\u2019t really penetrated beyond his devoted base. What does appear to be penetrating, though \u2014 and might well undermine Trump\u2019s claims to persecution \u2014 is the perception that Trump isn\u2019t conducting himself properly. While many are reserving judgment, the 17-point margin by which Americans say Trump\u2019s behavior is mostly inappropriate rather than appropriate would suggest he\u2019s not proving a terribly sympathetic defendant.<\/p>\n Strikingly, even the percentage of Republicans who vouch for the appropriateness of Trump\u2019s conduct is shy of a majority \u2014 48 percent \u2014 and independents say it\u2019s been inappropriate rather than appropriate by a 2-to-1 margin.<\/p>\n If that perception continues, it\u2019s going to be much tougher for Trump to argue that things like gag orders and decisions that go against him are truly unfair and symptomatic of a \u201cweaponized\u201d justice system. And if he can\u2019t drive that messaging home, the eventual verdict becomes more problematic for him.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n In none of Donald Trump\u2019s criminal trials do the politics rank as close in importance to the legal issues as they do in Manhattan. The charges in the hush-money-election-interference case are objectively less serious than those in the former president\u2019s other cases, and Americans harbor significantly more uncertainty about them. That creates a situation in […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":3626,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3625","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-politics"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3625","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3625"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3625\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3626"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3625"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3625"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3625"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}