Welcome to The Campaign Moment, your guide to the biggest developments in a 2024 election that could be decided in a courtroom.<\/p>\n
(Did a friend forward this to you? If so, sign up here. You can also hear Aaron\u2019s Campaign Moment podcast weekly on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.)<\/p>\n
A former president of the United States is on criminal trial for the first time in American history as of this week. It\u2019s been a long time coming.<\/p>\n
And while the early proceedings in Donald Trump\u2019s Manhattan \u201chush money\u201d\/election-interference case have been somewhat sleepy \u2014 quite literally if you\u2019re Trump \u2014 the stage is being set for one of the most consequential legal clashes in American political history. As a quick reminder: The case has to do with hush money payments Trump\u2019s lawyer made to an adult-film actress to keep her quiet weeks ahead of the November 2016 election and whether he falsified business records to cover it up.<\/p>\n
You can read the blow-by-blow of all the significant legal maneuverings during jury selection from Monday, Tuesday and Thursday.<\/p>\n
As for the politics? Here are my early thoughts.<\/p>\n
Trump\u2019s antics threaten to boil over, with major political \u2014 and societal \u2014 implications.<\/p>\n
The verdict is obviously important, for reasons we\u2019ll get to. But how we get there could also reverberate greatly.<\/p>\n
The trial is quickly shaping up to be the culmination of Trump\u2019s years-long assault on a justice system that has long scrutinized him. And there\u2019s increasing reason to believe the situation could get ugly:<\/p>\n
Trump\u2019s courtroom antics are increasing, including what the judge interpreted Tuesday as a possible attempt to intimidate a juror. \u201cHe was audibly gesturing, speaking in the direction of the juror,\u201d New York Supreme Court Justice Juan Merchan said. \u201cI won\u2019t tolerate that.\u201d<\/span>Trump has repeatedly flouted gag orders barring him from attacking the judge\u2019s daughter and witnesses, resulting in the judge setting a hearing on the subject next week. Trump has said it would be his \u201cgreat honor\u201d to go to jail for violating the gag order.<\/span>Even after the scene with the juror Tuesday, Trump on Wednesday promoted the remarks of Fox News host Jesse Watters, who accused prospective jurors of being \u201cundercover liberal activists.\u201d Trump is barred from making public comments about jurors and prospective jurors. Prosecutors included the post in claiming seven more gag order violations Thursday morning.<\/span><\/p>\n We\u2019re already seeing how all of this could matter. A juror whose biographical details were aired by media outlets \u2014 and scrutinized by Watters \u2014 raised concerns Thursday, citing how people were able to identify her. (Jurors in the case are being kept anonymous.) She was dismissed from the panel.<\/p>\n The play here is obvious. Trump wants to make clear that he will make life hard for anybody who might help deliver an adverse verdict. And Trump will push limits in ways that leaves the judge in the case with some very difficult decisions; imagine a situation in which the judge feels compelled to actually jail Trump. (As has been noted, Trump\u2019s actions probably wouldn\u2019t be tolerated from basically any other defendant.)<\/p>\n To the extent this can be turned into a circus, perhaps people will dismiss it. Or perhaps it will draw even more interest and people will see in Trump\u2019s actions what they previously found unappealing in him.<\/p>\n Americans by and large don\u2019t buy into Trump\u2019s claims that this is a \u201cwitch hunt,\u201d as I wrote this week. But even some who don\u2019t believe that do harbor some concerns about the process, and this case in particular. Trump is now forcing the issue in a major way, and how Americans regard the legal process and his conduct could matter greatly.<\/p>\n This case is less of a threat than the others. But.<\/p>\n This case is objectively the one that Americans are the least concerned about. A poll this week showed just one-third thought Trump had broken the law \u2014 double-digits less than in his other three indictments. And about the same number regard the charges as \u201cvery serious.\u201d<\/p>\n But voters are also being reminded about a situation they have overwhelmingly found to be unsavory. About 8 in 10 said Trump at least did something wrong when the 2016 hush money payments to adult-film actress Stormy Daniels were first in the news back in 2018. And polling has shown as many as 7 in 10 say it\u2019s a crime to pay someone to remain silent about an issue that could affect an election (which is basically the substance of the charges).<\/p>\n Also, even that Associated Press-NORC poll showed 50 percent of voters said a conviction in this case would render Trump unfit for office. Just 29 percent said it wouldn\u2019t matter.<\/p>\n We\u2019ve also seen in polls that a potentially decisive number of Americans say they\u2019d flip their votes if Trump is convicted of a crime. Whether that would hold \u2014 and on this case, specifically \u2014 is a huge question.<\/p>\n Democrats\u2019 hands-off approach could be tested.<\/p>\n There is a remarkable asymmetry in the political debate over Trump\u2019s criminal trial. While Trump and his allies are all over it, Democrats and the Biden campaign are basically ignoring it.<\/p>\n About the closest the Biden campaign has come to weighing in was a news release this week which slyly included the words \u201cstormy\u201d and \u201chush\u201d and alluded to Trump nodding off. But it was about abortion.<\/p>\n This is all in keeping with Democrats\u2019 general approach to Trump\u2019s criminal cases. While Republicans have leaped to decry things such as Trump\u2019s indictments and the FBI search of Mar-a-Lago in August 2022 \u2014 often before they know much of anything about the situations \u2014 Democrats have generally been content to merely say that \u201cno one is above the law\u201d and leave it at that.<\/p>\n But that\u2019s going to be tested moving forward. The legal system is limited in how it can defend itself, with litigators and judges generally letting their work and courtroom remarks speak for themselves. And at some point, you\u2019d think Democrats would want to drive home Trump\u2019s behavior at the trial and how it\u2019s symptomatic of his chaotic presidency.<\/p>\n Of course, they also might not want to bet too heavily on the outcome of a trial the American people haven\u2019t shown they\u2019re overly concerned about.<\/p>\n One of the most consequential facets of the 2024 election is how Americans have warmed to Trump\u2019s first term. Call it \u201camnesia\u201d or anything else, but it\u2019s a significant factor. To the extent people continue to remember the grass being greener, that\u2019s likely to weigh significantly on who wins in November.<\/p>\n But it will apparently only take Trump so far.<\/p>\n A new Yahoo News\/YouGov poll provides some interesting findings on this front. It finds 49 percent of people retrospectively approve of Trump\u2019s presidency \u2014 higher than that number was at virtually any juncture of his actual presidency \u2014 and just 40 percent approve of President Biden\u2019s. Voters were more likely by double digits to say Trump accomplished things than that Biden did. And asked to choose directly whether they were better off under Trump or Biden, voters chose Trump 45 percent to 34 percent.<\/p>\n And yet! The poll shows the race deadlocked \u2014 44-44 in a head-to-head, and 42-42 if you include third-party candidates.<\/p>\n Part of that imbalance is probably polarization and Democrats not being enthusiastic about Biden\u2019s presidency \u2014 but still opposing Trump. But it\u2019s logical to think it might also owe to Trump\u2019s legal problems and other personal factors.<\/p>\n Whatever the case, it\u2019s worth keeping an eye on \u2014 particularly if Democrats can, in fact, drive home what voters disliked about Trump before and drive the above numbers down.<\/p>\n \u201cTrump deploys favorite political tool, social media, as legal cudgel\u201d (Washington Post)<\/span>\u201cBiden\u2019s handling of Gaza shakes his support in the Black community\u201d (Washington Post)<\/span>\u201cTrump is overstating the problem of having to be in court\u201d (Washington Post)<\/span>\u201cThe politics of the swiftly dismissed Mayorkas impeachment trial\u201d (Washington Post)<\/span>\u201cSheehy apologized and asked for leniency after alleged 2015 gun incident\u201d (Washington Post)<\/span>\u201cAs Civil Rights Era Fades From Memory, Generation Gap Divides Black Voters\u201d (New York Times)<\/span>\u201c2 of Trump\u2019s jurors are lawyers. Would they acquit on a technicality?\u201d (Politico)<\/span><\/p>\n Welcome to The Campaign Moment, your guide to the biggest developments in a 2024 election that could be decided in a courtroom. (Did a friend forward this to you? If so, sign up here. You can also hear Aaron\u2019s Campaign Moment podcast weekly on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.) A former […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":3317,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3316","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-politics"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3316","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3316"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3316\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3317"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3316"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3316"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3316"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}