TOKYO \u2014 The U.S. presidential election has spawned a viral Japanese phrase that encapsulates the mild panic brewing here: \u201cmoshi-tora,\u201d or \u201cif Trump.\u201d It\u2019s a shorthand for: What if Donald Trump wins?<\/p>\n
Many capitals around the world are debating the \u201cAmerica First\u201d president\u2019s potential return. But in Japan \u2014 which values predictability and loves abbreviated phrases \u2014 the anxiety over Trump 2.0 has been neatly packaged in \u201cmoshi-tora,\u201d a term so ubiquitous these days that it\u2019s unavoidable while reading, watching or talking about the news.<\/p>\n
The term is sure to make new headlines next week, when Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida\u2019s state visit to Washington underscores the unknown: Will this be his last time meeting with President Biden in the White House?<\/p>\n
The saying \u201cmoshi-tora\u201d riffs off the name of a popular book, \u201cMoshi Dora.\u201d (\u2018Tora\u201d is the start of Trump\u2019s name transliterated in Japanese: Torampu.)<\/p>\n
The term has inspired spinoffs as Trump became the presumptive GOP nominee, each term snowballing in intensity as the Japanese public has became increasingly resigned to a Biden-Trump rematch. \u201cMoshi-tora\u201d (what if Trump) became \u201chobo-tora\u201d (pretty much Trump), then \u201cmaji-tora\u201d (it will seriously be Trump), \u201ckaku-tora\u201d (confirmed Trump) and \u201cmou-tora\u201d (already Trump).<\/p>\n
It\u2019s no wonder Japan is on edge. The nation is America\u2019s most important ally in Asia and it depends on Washington for its national security, yet Trump has questioned the value of alliances. The self-declared \u201cTariff Man\u201d targeted Japanese automakers and is already floating new import taxes. And his unconventional approach to some of Japan\u2019s most pressing security concerns \u2014 including from China and North Korea \u2014 has its leaders and bureaucrats worried about what another four years of Trump may bring.<\/p>\n
\u201cIt makes us nervous,\u201d said Mieko Nakabayashi, a former Japanese lawmaker and a professor at Waseda University in Tokyo. \u201cWe don\u2019t know everything yet, therefore we have to start thinking. That is the true purpose of \u2018moshi-tora\u2019: alarming ourselves to think about the unthinkable.\u201d<\/p>\n
Then, there\u2019s the reality that Japan can no longer lean on former prime minister Shinzo Abe, who was assassinated in 2022, to be its conduit to the U.S. leader.<\/p>\n
As prime minister, Abe forged a close relationship with Trump through flattery, attention and golf outings \u2014 and even nominating him for a Nobel Peace Prize, according to Trump. Days after Trump\u2019s election stunned the Japanese political establishment, Abe flew 6,700 miles to reaffirm the bilateral alliance with the president-elect at Trump Tower and gift him a gold-colored golf driver.<\/p>\n
That early outreach laid the groundwork for Abe\u2019s personality-driven diplomacy with Trump. And while the charm offensive wasn\u2019t always effective, Abe\u2019s approach helped quell concerns about managing the unpredictable U.S. leader, said Tobias Harris, an expert on Japanese politics and an Abe biographer.<\/p>\n
The phrase \u201cmoshi-tora\u201d captures \u201cthat feeling of vulnerability that \u2026 because Abe acted so quickly in 2016, didn\u2019t fester quite so long,\u201d Harris said. \u201cHe exuded a confidence that, whether [or not] everyone bought it, it was reassuring to at least a lot of people.\u201d<\/p>\n
It\u2019s unclear now which Japanese politician could carry on Abe\u2019s mantle. Kishida, formerly Japan\u2019s top diplomat, lacks Abe\u2019s charismatic leadership style, Japanese media note.<\/p>\n
Taro Aso, who was Abe\u2019s deputy and therefore had been Vice President Mike Pence\u2019s counterpart, traveled to New York in January and requested a meeting with Trump but could not secure one, according to Japanese media reports.<\/p>\n
\u3082\u3057\u30c8\u30e9 pic.twitter.com\/mSyvOdvM8b<\/p>\n
\u2014 \u5b87\u6d25\u6728\u6d0b (@YgQA8X1DktoF6ud) March 18, 2024<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
\u201cHe\u2019s not the president yet \u2026 but he\u2019s already affecting American policymaking,\u201d said Nakabayashi, who started using the term \u201cmou-tora\u201d (already Trump). \u201cFor Mr. Trump, he should be happy now to know that Japanese people are seriously thinking of his potential winning and trying to prepare for it, at least mentally.\u201d<\/p>\n
On television, newspapers and social media, Japanese analysts are discussing their top concerns over Trump\u2019s return, especially whether Trump will again question long-standing treaties and international agreements and demand that allies such as Japan pay more money to keep U.S. troops stationed in their countries.<\/p>\n
As Republicans in Congress grow weary of prolonged U.S. aid to Ukraine, a key \u201cmoshi-tora\u201d question is whether Trump would continue support for Kyiv \u2014 and what it would mean for other Group of Seven and pro-Western nations including Japan if the United States pulls support or leaves.<\/p>\n
The list of \u201cwhat-ifs\u201d continues: What if Trump resumes his efforts to strike a deal with North Korea\u2019s Kim Jong Un \u2014 and sidelines Japan again from negotiations? What if Trump doesn\u2019t protect Taiwan from Chinese aggression \u2014 something Trump has refused to answer directly in recent interviews?<\/p>\n
What if Trump \u2014 whose love for tariffs is rooted in witnessing Japan\u2019s rise in the 1980s \u2014 imposes higher tax rates on Japanese imports? What if he were to make another dramatic change on economic policy in Asia, like when he pulled out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal that was intended to balance China\u2019s rising economic power?<\/p>\n
Kenichiro Sasae, a former Japanese ambassador to the United States, said \u201cmoshi-tora\u201d underscores a larger anxiety from Japan and other allies that the increasing political division within America is driving it inward, and away from its role to protect allies and shared values of democracy and a liberal order.<\/p>\n
\u201cIt\u2019s not simply a \u2018moshi-tora\u2019 issue but a fundamental orientation of where America is heading toward,\u201d Sasae said. \u201cIs America going to abandon us?\u201d<\/p>\n
But the seven-decade-long alliance remains resilient to leadership changes in either country. The key is to be \u201ccareful when we judge what he says in public, and what he really is willing to deliver,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
\u201cLet us see how all this could be worked out,\u201d Sasae said. \u201cThis institutionally built strength [between Japan and the United States], we need to maintain \u2014 and we could maintain.\u201d<\/p>\n
Julia Mio Inuma contributed to this report.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
TOKYO \u2014 The U.S. presidential election has spawned a viral Japanese phrase that encapsulates the mild panic brewing here: \u201cmoshi-tora,\u201d or \u201cif Trump.\u201d It\u2019s a shorthand for: What if Donald Trump wins? Many capitals around the world are debating the \u201cAmerica First\u201d president\u2019s potential return. But in Japan \u2014 which values predictability and loves abbreviated […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":2831,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2830","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-politics"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2830","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2830"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2830\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2831"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2830"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2830"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2830"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}