Welcome to The Campaign Moment, your guide to the biggest developments in the 2024 election \u2014 including increasingly fraught foreign policy choices.<\/p>\n
(Did a friend forward this to you? If so, sign up here.)<\/p>\n
(Also, you can hear my new Campaign Moment podcast weekly on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts. Subscribe now!)<\/p>\n
One of the strengths of the Democratic Party these days is, rather counterintuitively, its unity. The century-old Will Rogers adage \u2014 \u201cI am not a member of any organized political party; I am a Democrat\u201d \u2014 has been strikingly inoperable for years. The boogeyman that is former president Donald Trump has injected Democrats with a common purpose and turned its ascendant left flank into (mostly) team players.<\/p>\n
A war in Gaza that has cut the Democratic Party roughly in half has long threatened that. And with the events of the past week \u2014 an Israeli strike that killed seven humanitarian aid workers from the World Central Kitchen \u2014 Democratic unity is being tested like seldom before in the Trump era.<\/p>\n
To my mind, it comes at the most inopportune of moments for President Biden, as he seeks to rally a base that is pretty unenthusiastic about him for a 2024 rematch with Trump.<\/p>\n
The aid workers\u2019 deaths have punctuated the heavy civilian death toll in the war. And the situation has pushed the Democrats\u2019 divides over the war more into the open. While Biden has sought to pair rather unequivocal support for Israel with the occasional harsh words for its leadership\u2019s prosecution of the war, members of his party are clearly losing patience with that approach.<\/p>\n
To wit:<\/p>\n
Progressives in Congress are circulating a draft letter calling on Biden to stop weapons transfers to Israel.<\/span>Key Democrats are balking at the administration\u2019s plan to sell billions of dollars worth of F-15 fighter jets to Israel.<\/span>Former Obama administration officials are openly criticizing Biden for talking tough about Israel but not backing it up with actions.<\/span>Perhaps most strikingly, on Thursday, top Biden ally Sen. Chris Coons (D-Del.) now says the president should put conditions on aid to Israel if it bucks the administration\u2019s wishes by proceeding with a planned large-scale invasion of the southern Gaza city of Rafah. \u201cI\u2019ve never said that before, \u201cCoons noted on CNN. \u201cI\u2019ve never been here before.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n It\u2019s far from a full-scale revolt, and Democrats are largely giving Biden space to operate. But the push is clearly away from his chosen policy of, as White House national security spokesman John Kirby put it even Thursday, \u201cironclad\u201d support for Israel\u2019s self-defense.<\/p>\n It appears to be having some impact, with Biden for the first time Thursday suggesting a potential change in U.S. policy if Israel doesn\u2019t do more to address humanitarian problems and protect aid workers.<\/p>\n But Israel has bucked the administration\u2019s wishes before, and Biden\u2019s threat is still rather nonspecific \u2014 in a way that the growing chorus of Israel critics in his party are likely to regard as insufficient, particularly if they don\u2019t see Israel doing enough to adjust course.<\/p>\n Meanwhile, the party\u2019s base continues to drift away from Israel. A Gallup poll last week showed Democrats disapproved of Israel\u2019s handling of the war, 75 percent to 18 percent. A Quinnipiac University poll showed Democrats sympathized with the Palestinians more than the Israelis by a whopping 48-21 margin.<\/p>\n The problem is that the American people, writ large, and many Democratic officeholders are still more aligned with Israel. Any action that Biden takes to truly get tough on a top U.S. ally and shore up his base could come at a cost with the broader electorate. It could also lay bare the divisions in his own party.<\/p>\n Trump seems equally flummoxed about how to deal with the tough issue, telling radio host Hugh Hewitt that Israelis are \u201closing the PR war\u201d and urging Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to \u201cget it over with.\u201d But we haven\u2019t yet seen Republicans raise concerns about his approach, and he doesn\u2019t need to make the hard choices Biden does right now.<\/p>\n Democratic divisions have been there from the moment the war began in October. But aside from the effort to get Democratic voters to register their protest by voting \u201cuncommitted\u201d against Biden in recent primaries, they haven\u2019t really busted out into the open.<\/p>\n The fact that they haven\u2019t yet is a testament to the Democrats\u2019 newfound commitment to unity. But just as Trump arouses great passions in the Democratic base, so does this sleeping giant of an issue. And the giant appears to be perking up.<\/p>\n I believe one of the biggest challenges to understanding the 2024 race is that our country is so polarized and the candidates are so defined that we\u2019re unlikely to see big, statistically significant shifts in the polls.<\/p>\n But it\u2019s getting safer to say that Biden has gained ground in recent weeks \u2014 at least a little, and at least nationally.<\/p>\n The president has seen some of his best high-quality national polls in a while, including being up four points head-to-head over Trump in a Marquette University Law School poll, being up three in the Quinnipiac poll and being up two in an NPR\/PBS\/Marist College poll. However, in all three polls, the gap is within the margin of error. The counterpoint is a Fox News poll showing Trump ahead by five.<\/p>\n Biden got some bad news in swing states this week, with a new batch of Wall Street Journal polls showing him trailing in 6 of 7 states (three states showed results within the margin of error). But he has gained in Bloomberg swing-state polling, and he led in a new poll in all-important Pennsylvania this week.<\/p>\n \t<\/p>\n Total<\/p>\n number<\/p>\n of votes<\/p>\n per state<\/p>\n<\/div>\n 2.5M <\/p>\n<\/div>\n 1M <\/p>\n<\/div>\n 100K<\/p>\n<\/div>\n 10K<\/p>\n<\/div>\n Share of<\/p>\n non-Trump votes<\/p>\n<\/div>\n AK<\/p>\n<\/div>\n States with<\/p>\n closed primaries<\/p>\n<\/div>\n MN<\/p>\n<\/div>\n MT<\/p>\n<\/div>\n WA<\/p>\n<\/div>\n ID<\/p>\n<\/div>\n ND<\/p>\n<\/div>\n IA<\/p>\n<\/div>\n OR<\/p>\n<\/div>\n UT<\/p>\n<\/div>\n WY<\/p>\n<\/div>\n SD<\/p>\n<\/div>\n 49%<\/p>\n<\/div>\n CA<\/p>\n<\/div>\n NV<\/p>\n<\/div>\n CO<\/p>\n<\/div>\n NE<\/p>\n<\/div>\n IL<\/p>\n<\/div>\n NM<\/p>\n<\/div>\n MO<\/p>\n<\/div>\n 21%<\/p>\n<\/div>\n KS<\/p>\n<\/div>\n AZ<\/p>\n<\/div>\n OK<\/p>\n<\/div>\n AR<\/p>\n<\/div>\n LA<\/p>\n<\/div>\n HI<\/p>\n<\/div>\n TX<\/p>\n<\/div>\n 22%<\/p>\n<\/div>\n ME<\/p>\n<\/div>\n NH<\/p>\n<\/div>\n VT<\/p>\n<\/div>\n MI<\/p>\n<\/div>\n NY<\/p>\n<\/div>\n RI<\/p>\n<\/div>\n MA<\/p>\n<\/div>\n 32%<\/p>\n<\/div>\n OH<\/p>\n<\/div>\n NJ<\/p>\n<\/div>\n PA<\/p>\n<\/div>\n WI<\/p>\n<\/div>\n CT<\/p>\n<\/div>\n DE<\/p>\n<\/div>\n MD<\/p>\n<\/div>\n IN<\/p>\n<\/div>\n WV<\/p>\n<\/div>\n VA<\/p>\n<\/div>\n NC<\/p>\n<\/div>\n KY<\/p>\n<\/div>\n SC<\/p>\n<\/div>\n TN<\/p>\n<\/div>\n DC<\/p>\n<\/div>\n 40%<\/p>\n<\/div>\n MS<\/p>\n<\/div>\n AL<\/p>\n<\/div>\n GA<\/p>\n<\/div>\n FL<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n \t<\/p>\n Total<\/p>\n number<\/p>\n of votes<\/p>\n per state<\/p>\n<\/div>\n 2.5M <\/p>\n<\/div>\n 1M <\/p>\n<\/div>\n 100K<\/p>\n<\/div>\n 10K<\/p>\n<\/div>\n ME<\/p>\n<\/div>\n AK<\/p>\n<\/div>\n Share of<\/p>\n non-Trump votes<\/p>\n<\/div>\n NH<\/p>\n<\/div>\n VT<\/p>\n<\/div>\n States with<\/p>\n closed primaries<\/p>\n<\/div>\n MN<\/p>\n<\/div>\n MI<\/p>\n<\/div>\n NY<\/p>\n<\/div>\n MT<\/p>\n<\/div>\n WA<\/p>\n<\/div>\n ID<\/p>\n<\/div>\n MA<\/p>\n<\/div>\n RI<\/p>\n<\/div>\n ND<\/p>\n<\/div>\n 32%<\/p>\n<\/div>\n IA<\/p>\n<\/div>\n OH<\/p>\n<\/div>\n NJ<\/p>\n<\/div>\n OR<\/p>\n<\/div>\n UT<\/p>\n<\/div>\n WY<\/p>\n<\/div>\n SD<\/p>\n<\/div>\n PA<\/p>\n<\/div>\n CT<\/p>\n<\/div>\n WI<\/p>\n<\/div>\n 49%<\/p>\n<\/div>\n CA<\/p>\n<\/div>\n DE<\/p>\n<\/div>\n MD<\/p>\n<\/div>\n NV<\/p>\n<\/div>\n CO<\/p>\n<\/div>\n NE<\/p>\n<\/div>\n IN<\/p>\n<\/div>\n WV<\/p>\n<\/div>\n VA<\/p>\n<\/div>\n IL<\/p>\n<\/div>\n NC<\/p>\n<\/div>\n NM<\/p>\n<\/div>\n MO<\/p>\n<\/div>\n KY<\/p>\n<\/div>\n KS<\/p>\n<\/div>\n 21%<\/p>\n<\/div>\n SC<\/p>\n<\/div>\n AZ<\/p>\n<\/div>\n TN<\/p>\n<\/div>\n DC<\/p>\n<\/div>\n 40%<\/p>\n<\/div>\n OK<\/p>\n<\/div>\n AR<\/p>\n<\/div>\n MS<\/p>\n<\/div>\n LA<\/p>\n<\/div>\n AL<\/p>\n<\/div>\n GA<\/p>\n<\/div>\n HI<\/p>\n<\/div>\n FL<\/p>\n<\/div>\n TX<\/p>\n<\/div>\n 22%<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n <\/p>\n<\/div>\n <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n Speaking of party divides: We\u2019ve focused quite a bit in this newsletter on the ongoing protest votes against Trump in Republican primaries. And after that continued unabated Tuesday \u2014 with around 1 in 5 voting against him across four states, nearly a month after he effectively secured the GOP nomination \u2014 we thought it a good time to break it all down.<\/p>\n You can see that piece here.<\/p>\n A few key points from our look at this dynamic:<\/p>\n One is that these protest votes are proving stubborn. The 1 in 5 voting against Trump is similar to the March 19 primaries and not that far off where things stood shortly after Trump\u2019s main GOP rival, Nikki Haley, dropped out on March 6. This problem isn\u2019t going away, or even really fading. (And there simply aren\u2019t as many Democratic protest votes against Biden right now.)<\/span>The second is that while Haley has tended to do well among non-Republicans, the trend has very notably continued even in states with \u201cclosed\u201d primaries (i.e. ones in which only registered Republicans can vote). An average of 1 in 5 people have also voted against Trump in closed primaries in Florida and Kansas on March 19 and Connecticut and New York on Tuesday.<\/span><\/p>\n As for whether this is a real liability for Trump in the general election? The jury\u2019s out. But as I noted in the piece, both George W. Bush in 2000 and Biden in 2020 continued to cede nearly as much of the vote as Trump is now after their top opponents bowed out.<\/p>\n Both won in November.<\/p>\n Biden rebukes Israel over aid workers, but his Gaza policy is unchanged (Washington Post)<\/span>Why Trump wants to game Nebraska\u2019s electoral vote, mapped (Washington Post)<\/span>Abortion vs. immigration fuels heated Biden-Trump rematch (Washington Post)<\/span>Centrist group No Labels won\u2019t field a ticket in presidential election (Washington Post)<\/span>Many Democrats Are Worried Trump Will Beat Biden. This One Isn\u2019t. (New York Times)<\/span>How Trump Is Fracturing Minority Communities (The Atlantic)<\/span>How Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Could Doom Joe Biden (Politico)<\/span><\/p>\n Welcome to The Campaign Moment, your guide to the biggest developments in the 2024 election \u2014 including increasingly fraught foreign policy choices. (Did a friend forward this to you? If so, sign up here.) (Also, you can hear my new Campaign Moment podcast weekly on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts. Subscribe […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":2805,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2804","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-politics"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2804","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2804"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2804\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2805"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2804"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2804"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2804"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
\n<\/p>\n