President Biden and former president Donald Trump have been running for 11 and 16 months, respectively. Biden never had a serious challenger in the Democratic primary and has easily won in every state. Trump consistently led other Republicans in polls, with a widening advantage since he started facing indictments in four cases, and won everywhere except Vermont and D.C. Last Tuesday, both accrued enough pledged delegates to secure their party\u2019s nominations, setting up a rematch in November.<\/p>\n
Some Americans aren\u2019t buying it.<\/p>\n
In surveys, focus groups and interviews, some voters are expressing doubts that the presumptive nominees will in fact be the nominees. In a Monmouth University national poll conducted last month, almost half of voters said it was \u201cvery\u201d or \u201csomewhat\u201d likely that Biden would be replaced as the Democratic nominee by November, and about a third said the same of Trump. An Economist\/YouGov survey taken as both candidates clinched their nominations found 33 percent of Americans thought a Biden-Trump rematch would \u201cdefinitely\u201d happen, 44 percent said it would probably happen, and the rest were less certain.<\/p>\n
\u201cI think there\u2019s still time,\u201d said Alfonso Ramirez, a 56-year-old independent voter in Glendale, Ariz., who was holding out hope for a different Democrat but would choose Trump in a rematch. \u201cUno nunca sabe,\u201d he added in Spanish, meaning, \u201cYou never know.\u201d<\/p>\n
Those doubts are another unusual feature of this year\u2019s presidential campaign: a rematch between two presidents, both effectively running as incumbents within their parties, and both historically unpopular. In the Economist\/YouGov poll, 54 percent said they viewed Biden unfavorably and the same percentage did not want him to run again, compared to 50 percent on both questions for Trump. <\/p>\n
For some, that dissatisfaction crosses over into disbelief.<\/p>\n
\u201cHow can he even run with that hanging over his head?\u201d an undecided voter named Linda from Wisconsin said of Trump\u2019s indictments in a January focus group conducted by the firm GBAO for the Democratic group Navigator Research. \u201cI\u2019m hoping these aren\u2019t the two candidates, but I\u2019m afraid they are. One\u2019s older than the other, one\u2019s more senile than the other. It scares me.\u201d<\/p>\n
Navigator\u2019s senior director, Bryan Bennett, said voters who support Biden are more convinced he\u2019ll be the nominee, while those who disapprove are less sure. Bennett attributed this \u201cbelievability gap\u201d to denial among left-leaning and moderate young Americans, and another way for conservatives to express disapproval of the president.<\/p>\n
But some voters\u2019 doubts stem from genuine uncertainties in an unprecedented and unpredictable election year. In follow-up questions for the Monmouth survey, voters who thought the nominees would be replaced before November provided reasons such as Biden\u2019s age (81), physical or mental health, and for Trump, his criminal charges or health (he is 77).<\/p>\n
Some voters have expressed misperceptions of Trump\u2019s legal problems as they explained their disbelief that he is running.<\/p>\n
\u201cPersonally, I thought Trump was still in jail, so this is news to me,\u201d a voter named Rhea said in a
Navigator focus group from November. \u201cIt\u2019s mind-blowing that he has charges against him and he\u2019s still running.\u201d<\/p>\n
Biden\u2019s doctor has released a report saying he is fit to serve. But polls show persistent concerns about his age and mental sharpness. In interviews and focus groups, many voters have winced at Biden\u2019s verbal stumbles and voiced discomfort about his age.<\/p>\n
\u201cI just have this terrible picture of a marginally senile Biden getting up there and saying, \u2018Hey guys, you\u2019re right. I need a break from all this,\u2019\u201d a two-time Trump voter named Paul from Ohio said in another focus group conducted by Republican Voters Against Trump.<\/p>\n
Such concerns about Biden\u2019s health or stamina reflect the impact of Republican attacks portraying him as feeble and declining. Trump (who sometimes trips up his own words) has stoked questions about Biden\u2019s future on the Democratic ticket with asides such as \u201cI don\u2019t think that Biden will make it to the gate,\u201d in a December interview with the far-right website Breitbart. An ad this month from the main pro-Trump super PAC questioned Biden\u2019s longevity and ended on a clip of Vice President Harris laughing. The Trump campaign did not respond to requests for comment.<\/p>\n
\u201cThis is a very, very unique election,\u201d said John McLaughlin, a pollster for the Trump campaign. \u201cDefinitely more than usual think something could happen to Biden\u2019s health, and Harris would be president. Then there are those voters who think Biden wants to put Trump in jail.\u201d<\/p>\n
Researchers in both parties say dread about the election, along with more generalized exhaustion with politics and news, is causing many voters to tune out. The Biden campaign has made that part of its case to explain how it will overcome the president\u2019s poor performance in approval ratings and head-to-head polls, arguing that voters will return to Biden once they start facing the reality of a second Trump administration.<\/p>\n
\u201cThat choice is no longer hypothetical,\u201d Biden campaign spokesman Ammar Moussa said. \u201cPresident Biden looks forward to spending the next eight months reminding the American people how dangerous Donald Trump and his extremist agenda are.\u201d<\/p>\n
Unlike in most elections, where campaigns get an opportunity to introduce their candidate to voters, both candidates this year are already almost universally well known \u2014 and predominantly disliked. An unusually large group of voters say they have unfavorable views of Biden and Trump: 19 percent in a February New York Times-Siena College poll. Such \u201cdouble negative\u201d or \u201cdouble haters\u201d supported Biden over Trump 45 percent to 33 percent \u2014 which researchers say could be a leading indicator.<\/p>\n
\u201cA similar number of voters on both sides are showing consistent fatigue and disinterest and dissatisfaction with politics in general,\u201d said Matt Canter, a partner at the Democratic polling firm Global Strategy Group. \u201cThe electorate is going to be slower to engage, but there is a lot of Trump amnesia and that presents a real opportunity for the Biden campaign because voters aren\u2019t paying attention, and as voters begin to pay attention, there\u2019s a lot about Trump that\u2019s going to become front and center that they wont like.\u201d<\/p>\n
Emily Guskin contributed to this report.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
President Biden and former president Donald Trump have been running for 11 and 16 months, respectively. Biden never had a serious challenger in the Democratic primary and has easily won in every state. Trump consistently led other Republicans in polls, with a widening advantage since he started facing indictments in four cases, and won everywhere […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":2233,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2232","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-politics"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2232","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2232"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2232\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2233"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2232"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2232"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2232"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}