{"id":17511,"date":"2025-05-07T00:01:31","date_gmt":"2025-05-07T00:01:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/2025\/05\/07\/will-trumps-foreign-film-tariffs-crush-streaming-stocks-what-you-need-to-know-now\/"},"modified":"2025-05-07T00:01:31","modified_gmt":"2025-05-07T00:01:31","slug":"will-trumps-foreign-film-tariffs-crush-streaming-stocks-what-you-need-to-know-now","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/2025\/05\/07\/will-trumps-foreign-film-tariffs-crush-streaming-stocks-what-you-need-to-know-now\/","title":{"rendered":"Will Trump\u2019s Foreign Film Tariffs Crush Streaming Stocks? What You Need To Know Now"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

Trump\u2019s latest Hollywood \u201chit\u201d isn\u2019t the kind you stream. <\/p>\n

Threatening to slap a 100% tariff on films produced in foreign countries, the president\u2019s announcement rattled several media stocks like Netflix, Inc.<\/strong> (NFLX), Walt Disney Co.<\/strong> (DIS), and others.<\/p>\n

What makes the whole thing complicated is this:<\/p>\n

No clear-cut definition of \u201cforeign\u201d:<\/strong> Many \u201cAmerican\u201d films are shot abroad with foreign crews, locations, and studios.
\nTax breaks abroad: <\/strong>Studios rely on international incentives to cut costs\u2014think Marvel in the UK or Netflix in Korea (Squid Game<\/em>).
\nGlobal revenues:<\/strong> Delivering content overseas boosts subscriptions.
\nDisruption to current projects:<\/strong> In-progress shoots and cross-border production deals could face sudden delays, cancellations, or financial penalties.
\nAnd last but not least, retaliation risk. <\/strong>Countries may hit back with tariffs or restrictions on U.S. films, hurting global revenues.<\/p>\n

The result? A policy that aims to protect American film could end up undercutting it from every angle.<\/p>\n

Which Media Stocks Are Still Worth Holding?<\/h2>\n

With Trump\u2019s proposed 100% tariff and the looming threat of retaliation, you\u2019re probably wondering: Which media stocks are still investable\u2014and which ones are caught in the crossfire?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Let\u2019s focus on the platforms that most Americans stream at home.<\/p>\n

Netflix (NFLX)<\/strong> is the most exposed to Trump\u2019s tariffs due to its heavy investment in international productions.
\nDisney (DIS)<\/strong> is most vulnerable both ways\u2014to the U.S. tariff and international retaliation\u2014in that over 60% of its box office revenue is international; plus, it operates theme parks in China, Hong Kong, Japan, and Europe.
\nRoku (ROKU)<\/strong> appears to be the least exposed, as it\u2019s a content aggregator and not a producer. The bulk of its revenue comes from advertising, subscriptions, and platform fees, not from producing or exporting content.<\/p>\n

NOTE: I\u2019m excluding Amazon (AMZN) in favor of pure-play media entertainment stocks. While Amazon is not as exposed to foreign film tariffs, it\u2019s exposed to the other tariffs.<\/em><\/p>\n

First, how are these stocks performing relative to each other and the broader market (S&P 500)?<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

FIGURE 1. PERFCHARTS DISPLAYING THE RELATIVE PERFORMANCE OF ALL THREE STOCKS VS THE S&P. Netflix is far outpacing its two media peers.<\/span><\/p>\n

Among these three, which stocks are currently the most investable\u2014that is, which ones are showing favorable price action that could support a viable trading setup?<\/p>\n

Netflix Technical Analysis: Uptrend Intact, But Caution Ahead<\/h2>\n

Let\u2019s start with NFLX\u2014the company most fundamentally exposed to the proposed tariffs on foreign-made films. Check out this daily chart<\/strong><\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/p>\n

FIGURE 2. DAILY CHART OF NFLX STOCK. No tariff fears are evident here as the stock continues its uptrend.<\/span><\/p>\n

NFLX stock remains in a strong uptrend, with a StockCharts Technical Rank<\/a> (SCTR) well above the 90-line, making it one of the top-performing large-cap stocks from a technical perspective. However, the <\/span>Relative Strength Index <\/a>(RSI) suggests the stock may be overbought, raising the possibility of a short-term pullback.<\/span><\/p>\n

The\u00a0 20-day Price Channel<\/a> can help identify potential turning points since it highlights recent tops and bottoms. The green-shaded zone marks the first area of support, where a bounce may occur if the stock retreats in the coming sessions. If that level fails to hold, the red-shaded zone identifies a secondary support area aligned with the 200-day <\/span>Simple Moving Average<\/a> (SMA). A drop below this level without a strong rebound could signal a weakening of the current bullish trend.<\/span><\/p>\n

Caution:<\/strong> Among the three stocks analyzed, Netflix appears to be most exposed to potential downside from Trump\u2019s proposed tariffs on foreign-made films<\/strong>. Investors should remain cautious, as shifting geopolitical dynamics could alter the stock\u2019s fundamental outlook and technical setup.<\/p>\n

Now let\u2019s take a look at Disney, a stock vulnerable to Trump\u2019s proposed 100% tariffs on foreign-made films and the added threat of retaliatory tariffs from international markets.<\/p>\n

Disney\u2019s Recovery Potential Faces Global Headwinds<\/h2>\n

With a significant portion of its revenue coming from global box office sales and international theme parks, DIS stock is particularly sensitive to shifts in global trade policy. Take a look at this daily chart.<\/a><\/p>\n<\/p>\n

FIGURE 3. DAILY CHART OF DISNEY STOCK PRICE. Oof. Even if it recovers, will we see a breakout beyond the top range?<\/span><\/p>\n

Disney is underperforming, and the key question is whether the stock is entering a potential recovery phase. The Full Stochastics Oscillator<\/a> tends to mirror the stock\u2019s cyclical movements well and suggests a possible short-term pullback.<\/span><\/p>\n

If DIS holds above its most recent swing low support range (highlighted in red), the stock may attempt to retest the resistance area (highlighted in green), which aligns with the 200-day SMA and the most recent swing high.<\/p>\n

One bullish signal to note: the Accumulation\/Distribution Line<\/a> (ADL) (shown in orange) is significantly above current price levels, suggesting that buying interest may be quietly building even while the stock trades near its lows. Is DIS a solid buy? Probably not at these levels. You will want to see a stronger indication (or confirmation) that DIS is recovering.<\/span><\/p>\n

Also, note that DIS has been cycling the $80 to $125 range over the last three years. <\/em>Unless you\u2019re holding it as a dividend stock, there\u2019s little indication yet that there\u2019s going to be growth beyond this exceedingly wide range.<\/p>\n

Is Roku Ready to Break Out, or Break Down?<\/h2>\n

Let\u2019s analyze the daily chart<\/a> of Roku.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/p>\n

FIGURE 4. DAILY CHART OF ROKU STOCK. It\u2019s gearing for a breakout, but driven by what?<\/span><\/p>\n

ROKU may be the least exposed to the proposed foreign film tariffs, but what\u2019s going to drive it higher? Remember, the stock plunged in 2022\u20132024 due to falling ad revenue, widening losses, and a high-profile cybersecurity breach that shook investor confidence. Without a clear reason for a rebound, the stock may remain stuck.<\/p>\n

The Chaikin Money Flow<\/a> (CMF) is probably the most telling indicator here: buying and selling pressure are at a virtual standstill. There has to be a compelling catalyst to move the stock higher or lower. Still, ROKU appears to be rebounding from a technical standpoint, with overhead resistance levels at $71 and $82.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, there needs to be something fundamental to validate this technical setup, especially if it turns bullish (like a break above resistance). So if for any reason you\u2019re bullish on ROKU, monitor the fundamental side of this stock play. Right now, it doesn\u2019t look very promising.<\/p>\n

At the Close<\/h2>\n

Trump\u2019s proposed tariff on foreign-made films has stirred up more than just Hollywood headlines; it\u2019s forcing Wall Street to reassess risk across streaming and media stocks. Keep monitoring the technical, fundamental, and geopolitical factors. Don\u2019t make any decisions until you see clear technical confirmation backed by a viable fundamental catalyst. And remember, geopolitical dynamics can still shift the conditions in an instant.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

Disclaimer:<\/em><\/strong> This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Trump\u2019s latest Hollywood \u201chit\u201d isn\u2019t the kind you stream. Threatening to slap a 100% tariff on films produced in foreign countries, the president\u2019s announcement rattled several media stocks like Netflix, Inc. (NFLX), Walt Disney Co. (DIS), and others. What makes the whole thing complicated is this: No clear-cut definition of \u201cforeign\u201d: Many \u201cAmerican\u201d films are […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":17512,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-17511","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-stock"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17511","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=17511"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17511\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/17512"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=17511"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=17511"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=17511"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}