{"id":16151,"date":"2025-03-22T00:03:02","date_gmt":"2025-03-22T00:03:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/2025\/03\/22\/american-association-of-individual-investors-aaii-breaks-record\/"},"modified":"2025-03-22T00:03:02","modified_gmt":"2025-03-22T00:03:02","slug":"american-association-of-individual-investors-aaii-breaks-record","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/2025\/03\/22\/american-association-of-individual-investors-aaii-breaks-record\/","title":{"rendered":"American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) Breaks Record"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

We wrote about the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) poll results a few weeks ago. Since then, the bearish activity on the chart has broken a record for the poll. Going back to the poll\u2019s inception in 1987, we have never seen four weeks in a row of bearish readings above 55%. We are now at bearish extremes for this indicator.<\/p>\n

Remember that sentiment, which this poll measures, is contrarian. This means that when market participants are extraordinarily bearish, it is a bullish indication. The opposite also applies; extraordinarily bullish readings are bearish for the market.<\/p>\n

Clearly, you can see that, even after and during the bear market in 2022, we never saw a cluster of readings this high. This has put the bull\/bear ratio at a very low reading. Typically speaking, this would result in an upside reversal.<\/p>\n

One thing we would say is that sometimes poll takers are RIGHT! So while we do see extremely bearish readings, we wouldn\u2019t bet the house that this isn\u2019t a bear market. At DecisionPoint.com we have been monitoring our indicators and participation and we are considering that we are in the throes of a bear market rally and that it isn\u2019t likely to stick around. However, charts like this do have us wondering if the correction is all we\u2019ll get.<\/p>\n

Conclusion:<\/strong> Sentiment is extremely bearish on AAII and typically this will lead to a sustained rally. However, we have to understand that sometimes the respondents are correct and we\u2019ll see more downside after all.<\/p>\n

The DP Alert: Your First Stop to a Great Trade!<\/h2>\n

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Technical Analysis is a windsock, not a crystal ball. \u2013Carl Swenlin<\/strong><\/p>\n

(c) Copyright 2025 DecisionPoint.com<\/strong><\/p>\n

Disclaimer:<\/em><\/strong>\u00a0This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and\u00a0strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a\u00a0financial professional.\u00a0Any opinions expressed herein are solely\u00a0those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.<\/em><\/p>\n

DecisionPoint is not a registered investment advisor. Investment and trading decisions are solely your responsibility. DecisionPoint newsletters, blogs or website materials should NOT be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any security or to take any specific action.<\/em><\/p>\n

Helpful DecisionPoint Links:<\/strong><\/p>\n

Trend Models<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO)<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

On Balance Volume<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

Swenlin Trading Oscillators (STO-B and STO-V)<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

ITBM<\/strong><\/a> and <\/strong>ITVM<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

SCTR Ranking<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

Bear Market Rules<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

We wrote about the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) poll results a few weeks ago. Since then, the bearish activity on the chart has broken a record for the poll. Going back to the poll\u2019s inception in 1987, we have never seen four weeks in a row of bearish readings above 55%. We are […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":16152,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-16151","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-stock"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16151","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=16151"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16151\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/16152"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=16151"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=16151"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=16151"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}