{"id":13631,"date":"2025-01-04T00:04:09","date_gmt":"2025-01-04T00:04:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/2025\/01\/04\/stock-market-ends-the-week-strong-could-it-spark-a-bullish-january\/"},"modified":"2025-01-04T00:04:09","modified_gmt":"2025-01-04T00:04:09","slug":"stock-market-ends-the-week-strong-could-it-spark-a-bullish-january","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/2025\/01\/04\/stock-market-ends-the-week-strong-could-it-spark-a-bullish-january\/","title":{"rendered":"Stock Market Ends the Week Strong: Could It Spark a Bullish January?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Has it been a while since the broader market indexes closed in the green? It certainly seems that way.<\/p>\n

After what looked like a weak start to the new year, the stock market showed us it still had legs. The week\u2019s trading day ended with the broader stock market indexes all closing in the green. But in the first half hour of the trading day, things didn\u2019t look great. There was a lot of choppy movement, but it settled down and went higher and finished strong. Nine of the 11 S&P sectors closed higher with Consumer Discretionary at the top (more on that below).<\/p>\n

Friday was the last day of the Santa Claus Rally. While Santa skipped Wall St. this year, Friday\u2019s price action in the S&P 500<\/strong> ($SPX) left investors optimistic. The S&P 500 was able to hold on to its November lows (see the daily chart of S&P 500 below<\/a>), which is an encouraging sign. But we\u2019re not out of the woods yet.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

FIGURE 1. S&P 500 HOLDS ABOVE NOVEMBER LOWS. Friday\u2019s price action was encouraging but increasing breadth would be more confirming of a turnaround.<\/span>Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

Thursday\u2019s price action was nerve-wracking \u2014 there was a time when the index was trading below its November lows. Fortunately, it recovered and closed a little above it. Friday\u2019s close was encouraging, with the S&P 500 gaining 1.26%, hitting resistance at its 50-day simple moving average<\/a> (SMA). But the market breadth indicators in the lower panels need to be stronger. The S&P 500 <\/span>Bullish Percent Index<\/a> is at 41, the NYSE <\/span>Advance-Decline Line<\/a> is declining, and the <\/span>percentage of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 200-day moving average<\/a> is 56.<\/span><\/p>\n

Friday\u2019s MarketCarpet<\/a> based on the performance of the S&P 500 shows that heavy-weighted large caps such as NVIDIA Corp.<\/strong> (NVDA), Microsoft Corp.<\/strong> (MSFT), Alphabet Inc.<\/strong> (GOOG and GOOGL), Meta Platforms<\/strong> (META), and Tesla Inc.<\/strong> (TSLA) ended the day higher.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

FIGURE 2. MARKETCARPET FOR JANUARY 3. Most of the higher market cap stocks closed higher on Friday.<\/span>Image source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

TSLA had a massive move rising 8.10% closing the gap between December 31 and January 2. TSLA is a stock to monitor, especially since it has a deep connection with the new administration set to take office on January 20. The stock bounced on Friday after five down days.<\/p>\n

NVDA\u2019s stock price also had an impressive rally on Friday after consolidating since early November. These two stocks, TSLA and NVDA, helped the Consumer Discretionary and Technology sectors take the top two positions in Friday\u2019s sector performance.<\/p>\n

Overall, Friday\u2019s price action was a ray of hope that perhaps the January Barometer\u00a0 \u2014 as the S&P 500 goes in January, so goes the year \u2014 might be the one out of the trifecta that can come through. The January Barometer was devised by Yale Hirsch and has an 83.3% accuracy rate.<\/p>\n

Steel, Beer, and Used Cars<\/h2>\n

While many tech stocks saw big gains, it wasn\u2019t the same for US Steel Group<\/strong> (X). President Biden blocked the takeover of the company by Nippon Steel, resulting in a 6.53% drop in the price of X.<\/p>\n

Alcoholic beverage companies didn\u2019t have a great day either after US Surgeon General, Vivek Murthy, said alcoholic drinks should include cancer risk warnings on their labels. Shares of Anheuser-Busch InBev<\/strong> (BUD), Molson Coors Brewing Co. <\/strong>(TAP), Boston Beer Co.<\/strong> (SAM), and Constellation Brands<\/strong> (STZ) all fell on Friday.<\/p>\n

Shares of Carvana<\/strong> (CVNA) fell over 11% after Hindenberg Research accused the company of accounting manipulation. Although Carvana denied the allegations and the stock received an upgrade from J.P. Morgan analysts, it didn\u2019t help lift the stock price.\u00a0CVNA\u2019s stock price fell 17.53% (see chart below<\/a>).<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

FIGURE 3. WEEKLY CHART OF CVNA STOCK. Two sets of Fibonacci retracement levels are drawn on the chart, one from a previous high to low (blue) and another from a more recent low to high (red).<\/span>Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

Carvana had a high StockCharts Technical Rank<\/a> (SCTR) score, and we\u2019ve covered the stock in our past SCTR Reports. Once the SCTR score fell below the 90 level on December 23, it raised a red flag. Combine that with a break below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from a previous high to low (blue line) and a relative strength index<\/a> below 70 and you have a clear sell signal.<\/span><\/p>\n

It will be interesting to see how this story develops. If things clear up and CVNA can show that it didn\u2019t engage in accounting manipulations, the stock price could turn around and rise quickly.<\/p>\n

Yields, US Dollar, Oil<\/h2>\n

The bond market had a choppy day. The 10-year yield closed at 4.596%, which hurt bond prices. The US dollar surged on Thursday but pulled back a bit on Friday. The chart of the Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund<\/strong> (UUP) displays that Friday\u2019s price action was within Thursday\u2019s range. There\u2019s no sign of a weakness in the US dollar, which continues to remain strong.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

FIGURE 4. DAILY CHART OF INVESCO DB US DOLLAR INDEX BULLISH FUND. The dollar has been rising steadily since October.<\/span>Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

Crude oil prices rose today. The United States Oil Fund<\/strong> (USO) was up 1.83% on Thursday and up 1.29% on Friday. Oil prices have been going sideways since October but recent price action shows that it may be breaking out of its slump.<\/p>\n

For a short trading week, that\u2019s a lot of moving parts. Although stocks closed higher on Friday, there\u2019s still not enough clarity on the charts to show a reversal. Next week could tell a different story.<\/p>\n

End-of-Week Wrap-Up<\/h2>\n

S&P 500<\/strong> down 0.48% for the week<\/strong>, at 5942.47, Dow Jones Industrial Average<\/strong> down 0.60% for the week<\/strong> at 42,732.13; Nasdaq Composite down 0.51% for the week<\/strong> at 19,621.68
\n$VIX up 1.13% for the week, closing at 16.13
\nBest performing sector for the week: Energy<\/strong>
\nWorst performing sector for the week: Materials<\/strong>
\nTop 5 Large Cap SCTR stocks<\/a>: <\/span>Applovin Corp.<\/strong> (APP); <\/span>Palantir Technologies<\/strong> (PLTR); <\/span>Reddit Inc.<\/strong> (RDDT); <\/span>Astera Labs, Inc.<\/strong> (ALAB); <\/span>MicroStrategy Inc. <\/strong>(MSTR)<\/span><\/p>\n

On the Radar Next Week<\/strong><\/h3>\n

December PMI
\nNovember Factory Orders
\nNovember JOLTS Report
\nDecember ISM Services
\nDecember Non-Farm Payrolls
\nFOMC Minutes
\nFed speeches from Cook, Barkin, Schmid, and Bowman<\/p>\n

Disclaimer:<\/em><\/strong> This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Has it been a while since the broader market indexes closed in the green? It certainly seems that way. After what looked like a weak start to the new year, the stock market showed us it still had legs. The week\u2019s trading day ended with the broader stock market indexes all closing in the green. […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":13632,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-13631","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-stock"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13631","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=13631"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13631\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/13632"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=13631"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=13631"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=13631"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}