{"id":13214,"date":"2024-12-14T00:01:19","date_gmt":"2024-12-14T00:01:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/2024\/12\/14\/will-the-qqq-sell-off-in-january-heres-how-it-could-happen\/"},"modified":"2024-12-14T00:01:19","modified_gmt":"2024-12-14T00:01:19","slug":"will-the-qqq-sell-off-in-january-heres-how-it-could-happen","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/2024\/12\/14\/will-the-qqq-sell-off-in-january-heres-how-it-could-happen\/","title":{"rendered":"Will the QQQ Sell Off in January? Here\u2019s How It Could Happen"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

In recent interviews for !<\/em><\/p>\n

And remember, the point of this exercise is threefold:<\/p>\n

Consider all four potential future paths for the index, think about what would cause each scenario to unfold in terms of the macro drivers, and review what signals\/patterns\/indicators would confirm the scenario.
\nDecide which scenario you feel is most likely, and why you think that\u2019s the case. Don\u2019t forget to drop me a comment and let me know your vote!
\nThink about how each of the four scenarios would impact your current portfolio. How would you manage risk in each case? How and when would you take action to adapt to this new reality?<\/p>\n

Let\u2019s start with the most optimistic scenario, with the QQQ achieving a new all-time high over the next six to eight weeks.<\/p>\n

Option 1: The Very Bullish Scenario<\/h2>\n

For the most bullish scenario, I basically assumed that the uptrend we\u2019ve observed since September continues at a very similar pace. That would mean the QQQ could reach up to around $560 or so by the end of January.\u00a0For that to happen, we\u2019d need charts like NVDA to resume their uptrends, charts like META to hold their recent breakout levels, and all the other sectors to resume a more bullish configuration!<\/p>\n

Dave\u2019s Vote: 10%<\/em><\/p>\n

Option 2: The Mildly Bullish Scenario<\/h2>\n

What if the Magnificent 7 names slow down a bit, and even though other sectors like financials and industrials begin to outperform, it\u2019s just not enough to push the benchmarks much higher?\u00a0Scenario 2 would mean a slower pace to the recent advance, but the bullish phase would still keep the QQQ this week\u2019s close around $530. Perhaps the Fed meeting next week suggests a more measured pace to rate cuts in early 2025, and investors grow a bit more skeptical that this market euphoria will continue.<\/p>\n

Dave\u2019s vote: 20%<\/em><\/p>\n

Option 3: The Mildly Bearish Scenario<\/h2>\n

The bearish scenarios basically assume that this week\u2019s high is about it, and that even though we may drift a bit higher into year end, January 2025 looks a lot like January 2022.\u00a0The mildly bearish Scenario means we pull back a bit, but not enough to push the Nasdaq 100 below \u201cbig round number\u201d support at $500.<\/p>\n

There are a number of ways this could play out, but perhaps the first run of economic data in January, combined with a disappointing beginning to earnings season, makes us all realize that the euphoria of 2024 is now in the rearview mirror!<\/p>\n

Dave\u2019s vote: 60%<\/em><\/p>\n

Option 4: The Super Bearish Scenario<\/h2>\n

You always need a super bearish scenario, if only to remember that it\u2019s always a possibility regardless of whatever\u2019s happened in recent months!\u00a0Scenario 4 would mean about a 15% decline in January, which would actually be a fairly reasonable corrective move based on market history.<\/p>\n

If economic data shows that inflation is not remaining in the 2-3% range, or if earnings season is punctuated by a series of high profile misses, or if the Magnificent 7 all begin breaking down, this super bearish scenario could become a reality in short order.<\/p>\n

Dave\u2019s vote: 10%<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n

What probabilities would you assign to each of these four scenarios?\u00a0 Check out the video below, and then drop a comment with which scenario you select and why!<\/p>\n

<\/div>\n

RR#6,<\/p>\n

Dave<\/p>\n

P.S.<\/strong> Ready to upgrade your investment process?\u00a0Check out my free behavioral investing course<\/a>!<\/span><\/p>\n

David Keller, CMT<\/strong><\/p>\n

President and Chief Strategist<\/p>\n

Sierra Alpha Research LLC<\/p>\n

Disclaimer: <\/em><\/strong>This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice.\u00a0The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.<\/em><\/p>\n

The author does not have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

In recent interviews for ! And remember, the point of this exercise is threefold: Consider all four potential future paths for the index, think about what would cause each scenario to unfold in terms of the macro drivers, and review what signals\/patterns\/indicators would confirm the scenario. Decide which scenario you feel is most likely, and […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":13215,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-13214","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-stock"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13214","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=13214"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13214\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/13215"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=13214"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=13214"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=13214"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}