{"id":12273,"date":"2024-11-15T04:52:07","date_gmt":"2024-11-15T04:52:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/2024\/11\/15\/cobalt-price-recovery-facing-uncertainty-as-battery-chemistry-shifts-erode-demand\/"},"modified":"2024-11-15T04:52:07","modified_gmt":"2024-11-15T04:52:07","slug":"cobalt-price-recovery-facing-uncertainty-as-battery-chemistry-shifts-erode-demand","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/2024\/11\/15\/cobalt-price-recovery-facing-uncertainty-as-battery-chemistry-shifts-erode-demand\/","title":{"rendered":"Cobalt Price Recovery Facing Uncertainty as Battery Chemistry Shifts Erode Demand"},"content":{"rendered":"<\/p>\n

Cobalt market watchers are warning that a near-term resurgence in prices and demand may not occur. <\/strong><\/p>\n

Cobalt prices have spent most of 2024 on the decline, falling to lows not seen since 2016. Values for the electric vehicle (EV) battery metal have fallen 74 percent from highs set in 2022 (US$81,969.70 per metric ton).<\/p>\n

Prices are now sitting at the US$23,383.80 per metric ton level, an eight year low.<\/p>\n

The primary factor weighing on cobalt prices is softening demand from the battery sector. <\/p>\n

Cobalt usage has declined as the industry shifts away from previously popular nickel-manganese-cobalt (NMC) batteries and toward lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP) batteries, which don\u2019t require any cobalt.<\/p>\n

The issue has been further compounded by robust mining output from producers. <\/p>\n

While some cobalt market segments may fare better than others, overall the sector\u2019s contraction is seen continuing.<\/p>\n

\u201cCobalt hydroxide, a key raw material for cobalt sulfate and a byproduct of copper production, may experience temporary support from higher miner offers during Q4 term contract negotiations, though consistent oversupply driven by elevated copper prices in 2024 is likely to limit price gains,\u201d reads a report from S&P Global Commodity Insights.<\/p>\n

\n

LFP batteries dominate as cobalt-rich chemistries decline <\/span><\/h3>\n

According to S&P Global, during the third quarter, the market share for NMC batteries stood at 24.6 percent, while competing chemistry LFP dominated with a 75.2 percent share of the market.<\/p>\n

Unlike platinum and palladium, where substitution is relatively common as prices fluctuate, the firm believes the focus on cobalt-free battery chemistries will likely prevail. That\u2019s because they \u201care preferred for their safety, longer lifespan, and lower costs, and have gained traction, especially in China, in recent years.\u201d<\/p>\n

Rising plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) production and sales are also causing shifts in demand, as PHEVs require smaller batteries than fully battery electric vehicles.<\/p>\n

Now industry participants are starting to realize the sobering reality that cobalt may be phased out completely.<\/p>\n

This possibility has been affirmed in correspondence between Bloomberg and China\u2019s CMOC (OTC Pink:CMCLF,SHA:603993), the world\u2019s largest cobalt-mining company.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe predict that EV batteries will never return to the era that relies on cobalt,\u201d said Zhou Xing, a spokesperson for CMOC. \u201cCobalt is far less important than imagined.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

Other segments supporting cobalt demand <\/h3>\n

Despite its shrinking market share in the auto sector, cobalt demand from the consumer electronics segment remains steady, largely driven by lithium-cobalt-oxide batteries that are approximately 55 percent cobalt.<\/p>\n

Citing data from China\u2019s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and China Customs, S&P Global notes that in July and August, China\u2019s mobile phone production rose 9.3 percent year-on-year, while exports grew 4.8 percent.<\/p>\n

Cobalt demand will also be propped up by its use in superalloys, a niche that is expected to quadruple its cobalt demand by 2050, reaching 55,000 metric tons due to increased military, aerospace and satellite applications.<\/p>\n

However, support from consumer electronics and superalloys likely won\u2019t be enough to absorb current oversupply.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe cobalt market is currently expected to be in surplus through 2028, with the surplus peaking at 27,000 metric tons in 2024 and gradually decreasing to 3,000 metric tons by 2028,\u2019 said Alice Yu, principal analyst at S&P Global.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Securities Disclosure: I, Georgia Williams, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/p>\n

This post appeared first on investingnews.com<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Cobalt market watchers are warning that a near-term resurgence in prices and demand may not occur. Cobalt prices have spent most of 2024 on the decline, falling to lows not seen since 2016. Values for the electric vehicle (EV) battery metal have fallen 74 percent from highs set in 2022 (US$81,969.70 per metric ton). Prices […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":12274,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-12273","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-investing"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12273","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=12273"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12273\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/12274"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=12273"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=12273"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=12273"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}