{"id":10269,"date":"2024-09-28T00:03:25","date_gmt":"2024-09-28T00:03:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/2024\/09\/28\/could-u-s-stocks-crash-in-october\/"},"modified":"2024-09-28T00:03:25","modified_gmt":"2024-09-28T00:03:25","slug":"could-u-s-stocks-crash-in-october","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/2024\/09\/28\/could-u-s-stocks-crash-in-october\/","title":{"rendered":"Could U.S. Stocks Crash In October?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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That\u2019s a great question right now as many folks still remain quite nervous. The Volatility Index ($VIX), for example, gained more than 10% today, despite a minimal decline in the S&P 500. It\u2019s a signal that the stock market likely won\u2019t handle bad news very well. Next week, we have the September nonfarm payrolls. And earnings season is set to kick off in just a couple weeks, when the banks begin reporting. Could we see an earnings warning or layoffs from a big name or two? We don\u2019t know, but if we do see bad news, it\u2019s quite possible we see another leg lower in October.<\/p>\n

But could it crash?<\/p>\n

Well, first we\u2019d have to define \u201ccrash.\u201d Over the past 74 years, the S&P 500 has seen a drop of 9% or more in a calendar month just 17 times. That\u2019s 1 monthly drop of 9% or more every 4 years or so. If you\u2019re looking for the start of a 20% to 30% drop, or even more, I\u2019d say the chance of that is extremely slim, probably negligible.<\/p>\n

Let\u2019s take a look at the 2 worst October declines in U.S. history. First, there was October 1929 \u2013 The Great Depression:<\/p>\n

October 1929 began the largest decline in U.S. stock market history. The decline didn\u2019t find a bottom until nearly 90% of the stock market\u2019s value was lost.<\/p>\n

The other October decline that gives the month its bad name was October 1987 crash. Remember Black Monday? If you weren\u2019t investing back then, this is what the chart looked like:<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

The 1987 \u201ccrash\u201d happened over the course of a few weeks, not a few years like in 1929. There have been other rough Octobers, but they simply haven\u2019t been as catastrophic as the 1929 and 1987 versions. In fact, earlier I mentioned that we\u2019ve seen calendar month declines of 9% or more 17 different times since 1950. October has played a role in many of these. Furthermore, there have been 14 bear market declines (losses of 20% or greater from all-time highs) since 1950 and October has played a very interesting role in those too.<\/p>\n

So what might we expect in October 2024?<\/p>\n

If you\u2019re interested in stock market history, then EarningsBeats.com is the right place to get your information. It\u2019s interesting that the \u201cGo Away\u201d month (May, according to the Wall Street \u201cexperts\u201d) has never had one of those 9% or more calendar month losses. May also has never started a bear market, yet the bottom of one was found in May. You can\u2019t trust the historical information that you get from the media, but I can promise you that the information that we provide at EarningsBeats.com is 100% factual and ZERO percent false or misleading. As a practicing CPA for two decades, I can analyze and report data.<\/p>\n

Tomorrow morning, on Saturday, September 28th at 10:00am ET, I\u2019ll be hosting a FREE event, \u201cHistory of Market Bottoms.\u201d I want all of you to understand history the way we do at EarningsBeats.com. This event does require registration. To get more information and to save your seat, REGISTER NOW<\/a>! If you\u2019re reading this article and it\u2019s beyond Saturday 10:00am ET, no worries. Anyone who registers (even late) will receive a recording of the event. Finally, we\u2019ve developed an ebook, \u201c74 Years of Market Bottoms\u201d, that will be sent to you immediately upon registration, so don\u2019t delay!<\/p>\n

I\u2019ll see you Saturday morning!<\/p>\n

Tom<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

That\u2019s a great question right now as many folks still remain quite nervous. The Volatility Index ($VIX), for example, gained more than 10% today, despite a minimal decline in the S&P 500. It\u2019s a signal that the stock market likely won\u2019t handle bad news very well. Next week, we have the September nonfarm payrolls. And […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":10270,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-10269","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-stock"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10269","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=10269"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10269\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/10270"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=10269"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=10269"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstriumphs.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=10269"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}